The FAA expects the general aviation fleet to grow at 0.2% for the next two decades.
Last year wasn't easy for new business aircraft market. Comparing with 2014 year, the market of piston engine aircraft deliveries dropping 6.5%, turboprops down 7.6% and turbofan aircraft shipments flat at 1.6% growth, compared to 2014, according to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA). However, billings were up 2.4%. But for now the business aircraft operators still offer their older equipment, so the size of the turbine aircraft fleet slightly increased.
Such situation depends on a global economy activity. In its “Aerospace Forecast Report Fiscal Years 2016 to 2036,” the FAA says
“There are a number of headwinds that are buffeting the global economy — the fall in oil prices, recession in Russia and Brazil, and inconsistent performance in other emerging economies, a “hard landing” in China, and lack of further stimulus in the advanced economies.” Indeed, a dozen European states, along with Japan, have adopted negative central bank negative interest rates in efforts to stimulate their economies. And while the U.S. has avoided sinking into the morass that has recently entrapped many other nations’ economies, “a prolonged period of faster economic growth (e.g. >3%) may not be forthcoming.”
Aircraft manufacturers highlight China as this country has the hardest hit. Many business jets that were purchased by high net worth individuals now have been sold or transferred out of the country. The remaining aircraft, though, are being used actively to support the air transportation needs of the business community.
For U.S. business aircraft operators are other challenges, including legislative initiatives to institute airspace and airport user fees and attempts to move FAA air traffic control functions to a private corporation with a board of directors dominated by the airlines.
Hense, the FAA expects the general aviation fleet to grow just for 0.2% per year for the next two decades. Despite new turbine aircraft deliveries offsetting a projected contraction of the piston aircraft fleet.
Also, according to GAMA the general aviation pilot population slowly is shrinking, although there was a slight uptick in student starts in 2015. While the GA fleet growth is lackluster, the FAA estimates that turbine aircraft traffic will increase from 2016 to 2036.
In contrast to the aforesaid, fuel prices were much lower in 2015 and seems to be stable in 2016. But, the slow economy still has a big impact on aircraft pricing. Most of the aircraft manufacturers lowered prices for their aircraft in 2016.
Piper M350 - off $23.000 from the previous price at Aviation Week Planning Handbook: 2016 Business Airplanes
While that there were other facts that have an impact on the future industry.
In November 2015, EASA regulators issued a draft regulation that would permit commercial single-engine turbine aircraft operations in instrument meteorological conditions. Notably, Europe is the last large business aircraft market that, with few exceptions, does not permit commercial single engine operations in IMC.
After six years, this year ICAO is on track to finish development of uniform CO2 emission standards for aircraft. Such standardization will facilitate creation of market-based measures to move toward carbon-neutral growth of aircraft operations by 2020. Reduction in CO2 will be made possible by more efficient air traffic management, use of sustainable alternative fuels, replanting rain forests and developing more fuel efficient aircraft.
The FAA also is moving to Phase II of its Piston Aviation Fuels Initiative by developing a drop-in replacement unleaded avgas by 2018. Shell Oil and Swift Fuels have been selected to partner with the FAA to develop ASTM standards for unleaded avgas that will have the least technical and financial impact on general aviation aircraft operators and establish a fuel distribution infrastructure. However, it’s still not clear how much the price of unleaded avgas will change from the cost per gallon of 100 low lead fuel.
To promote sales of new aircraft, the general and commercial aviation communities joined forces to persuade the U.S. Congress to reauthorize funding for the U.S. Export-Import Bank in December 2015. The Ex-Im Bank provides incentive financing for a number of U.S. manufacturers, including aircraft companies, to spur sales of US made products, such as business aircraft, to overseas customers.
The U.S. Congress also moved to extend permanently the research and tax credit, providing $7.5 billion worth of credits for “qualified research” across a broad range of industries. And it extended bonus depreciation for aircraft purchased and put into service between 2015 and 2020.
Hense, the constant development of new, faster and generally more comfortable aircraft should help business aircraft industry for recovery in coming years.
Source: www.aviationweek.com